Analysis of the model for a 4.40 m flood at the Mopti scale With a maximum water height of 4.40 m at the Mopti scale, the 1984 flood was the lowest recorded since 1922 , the onset of records. This poor flood resulted from very poor rainfall in the upstream basin of the Niger and Bani rivers, in humid and sub- humid bioclimates. Meanwhile in the Sahel it was the most severe drought recorded since the beginning of the 20 th century. , In Macina, when the Niger River enters the Delta, the flood was higher by 0.54 m than expected from the propagation model proposed by J.P. Lamagat for a flood height of 4.40 m at the Mopti gauge, and this height was reached twice (3.96 m and 3.97 m) six weeks apart. If the flood of the Bani River observed at Sofara corresponds to the flood calculated by the model, the flood at the exit of the Débo at Akka shows a very strong deficit with a very short duration for the propagation along the Mopti to Akka reach (11 days versus 39 days). There is therefore a strong imbalance between the flood on the western branch of the Delta along the Diaka, which was well supplied, and the Eastern branch, the Bani and Niger towards Mopti, poorly supplied. A series of Landsat images (25 Oct, 10 Nov, 26 Nov) was available to analyze this exceptional year. The image of November 10 gives the best information on the extent of open water and the green vegetation across the Delta. The flooded areas calculated by the model (map Niv_440) extended on fragmented basins with a total area of open water and green vegetation of 423,299 ha. The transposition of the model in Veg7 - shape (Niv_440_Veg7) -, after correction of the residuals linked to the smoothing of the Veg7k3 matrix, gives a floodable area of 391,484 ha, the figure retained for comparison with the Landsat images. The flooded area appears fragmented, with a block around the Débo-Walado, poorly flooded central basins, and very little flood in southern basins such as Yongari-Mangari, Sebera, Bani and Pondori. The analysis of the Landsat images makes it possible to separate open water, the dense green vegetation of the flooded plains and the light green vegetation of the non-flooded plains and togge as well as bare soils. Overlaid on Veg7 (shape Veg7_1984), the flooded areas with or without dense vegetation where further separated as fully or partly flooded areas. The areas were calculated in two different ways: 1 . by counting pixels on Landsat 2 . by reporting Landsat data on shape Veg 7, resulting in Veg7_1984 If we consider that the partly flooded areas are effectively flooded at 50%, the flooded area assessed from the vegetation map in 1984 would be 321,225 ha, close to the 325,453 ha measured by pixel count on Landsat images. The relatively higher flood of the Niger River at Macina is part of the reason for the mismatch in the distribution of the flood between the western and eastern parts of the Delta, but probably not the only contributing factor: the peculiar longitudinal altitude profile of the Diaka could also be a factor. Indeed, while the bottom slopes of the Bani and Niger rivers are quite regular (see graphs:profil_fond), this is not true of the Diaka (see CARIMA : a Mathematical model of the Niger River - SOGREAH, 1984). The Niger River has a bottom slope of 4.5 cm / km along 200 km before it decreases to 2 cm / km, 50 km upstream after it enters the Débo. The Bani river alternates reaches with slopes of 4.5 cm / km and reaches with very low slopes (between 1 cm and 0.8 cm per km). However, neither of them presents back slopes as the Diaka does, in particular between km 90 and 126 downstream from Diafarabé. These back slopes would explain the great extent of the Toggere Koumbe basin and account in part for the dysfunction of the model with equal flood depth isolines during poor floods such as that of 1984. The peculiarity of the altitude profile of the Diaka, linked to the transversal dune (NW-SE) extending along the stretch, Saré Béré-Sildé-Rogonta-Sormé. This specificity is not found east of the basin where the bottom slope of the Mayo Dembé reaches 4.3 cm / km before it zeroes 20 km before it joins the Débo, highlighting the difference between the better flooded northwest part of the Delta, and the poorly flooded south and east parts of the Delta.
Flood    scale   Maximum flood in 1984   Time lag between maximum  in 1984   observed   Modeled*   reach   observed   Modeled*   (m)   dates   (m)   (day)   (day)   Mopti    4.40   19/10   4.40 -   -   -   Ké Macina**   3.97   17/10   3 . 37   Ké Macina - Mopti   2   11   Sofara   3.10   12/10   3 . 05   Sofara - Mopti   4   3   Akka    3.36   30/10   4 . 18   Mopti - Akka   11   39
Pixel counts   Veg7_1984   Open water (ha)   Flooded   vegetation (ha)   Total   (ha)   104 998    220 455   325 453   Fully   flooded   101 695   145 212     Partly   flooded   46 598   102 038     Total Veg7_1984   148 293   247 250   395 886
* With Jean Pierre Lamagat 's model **The height of 3.96 m is reached on 21/08 then again 3.97 m is reached on 17/10
1- The flooded area common to the Landsat images and the model - shape (Commun_440_1984) - extends over​​ 251,891 ha, setting the confidence ratio of common area/model at 63.3%, a rather poor achievement in relation with the exceptional 1984 flood, but also with a change of flooding process developed further. 2- The synthesis map - shape (synthesis_440_1984) highlights a partition of the Delta in two regions: the southern and eastern region suffering from a strong flood deficit with the non flooding of the Pondori, Sebera basins and along the Bani River, very limited flooding of the Yongari-Mangari and Mopti basins, and even poor flooding of the Konna basin attached to the Débo-Walado; the central and north-western region benefiting from much better flooding in the Moura, Sossobé, Kadial, Kakagnan and Toggere Koumbe basins, as well as the western Walado. This better than expected flood with a 4.40m height at the Mopti scale results in particular in a continuous flooded area across the Kakagnan and Kadial basins, which are separated by the model at isoline -2.20 m, and the same applies to the Toggere Koumbé and southern Walado basins. There are 139 593 ha which are floodable according to the model but are not flooded on Landsat - shape (inon_ moins_280) - , while 143 994 ha areas flooded on Landsat are not floodable according to the model Niv_440 flooding logic - shape (inon_plus_1984). The area flooded "in addition to the model predictions" represents 36% of the flooded areas observed on Landsat, which is considerable.
Simplified model for a 4.90m flood in Mopti
Extract from the Landsat image of November 17, 1984
Depth   Totally flooded (ha)   Partially flooded (ha)   [ - 0.60]   815   1 204   ] - 0.60 à  - 1.05]   2 015   2 799   ] - 1.05 à  - 1.70]   20 443   40 109   [ - 2.15]   39 726   36 883
A thorough examination of the vegetation units presenting a dense green vegetation on the Landsat images while, according to the model, they should not be flooded with a flood of 4.40 m on the Mopti gauge, reveals that many (over 800 units) have a flood depth of -2.15 m assigned by the model, very close to the -2.20 m deficit of the flood at Mopti in relation to the reference flood of 6.60m. These large units (416 ha on average) are binary mosaics (B / VOR, B / O, B / EOR, VB / VOR, VB / O, OP / VOR, OP / EOR, OP / O) composed of a deeply flooded (-2.80 m) vegetation association combined with a fairly flooded (-1.50 m) one. One can think that the deepest flood association extends over the majority of the unit area. However, this will not completely explain the discrepancy, as indicated by the following table, since associations that should not be flooded for a 4.40m level at Mopti are shown to be flooded on the Landsat images (with depths ranging from -0.60m to 1.70m).
440_1984.gdb contain two shapes files : - Niv_440 : The raw calculated model -Synthèse_440_1984 with the following items: sigle : acronym of vegetal associations niveau : level of vegetal association profond : submersion depth of vegetal associations Value: 1 = water 2 = flooded vegetation Inon : 1 = ttotally flooded 2 = partially flooded Value and Inon come from the analysis of Landsat Images Synthèse : 1 = commun_440_1984 2 = inon_plus_1984 3= inon_moins_1984 Synthèse 1+2= Veg7_1984 (Landsat) et 1+3 = Niv_440_Veg7
Profil_fonds.rar
440_1984.gdb
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